Why Are Democrats Having Such a Hard Time Beating Trump?

The national political environment just isn’t as conducive to a Harris victory as many might imagine.

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Some Surprises in Last Battleground Polls, but Still a Deadlock

A rise for Kamala Harris in the Sun Belt, and a dip in the Northern swing states.

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Some Late Shifts, but Polls Remain Closest They’ve Ever Been

The polls tend to err as a group in one direction or the other, so a fairly decisive win by either candidate is still possible.

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What an Iowa Poll From The Des Moines Register Could Tell Us About the 2024 Race

Sometimes outliers are early indicators, capturing something other polls just haven’t measured yet. Other times, they’re a fluke.

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The Polls Are Close. The Results Might Not Be.

We are just a very normal polling error away from either candidate landing a decisive victory on Tuesday.

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How the Election Could Unfold: Four Scenarios

A look at plausible outcomes that might wind up seeming obvious in hindsight.

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What We’ll Know and When We’ll Know It: A Guide to Election Night

The vote count will still feature “blue mirages” and “red mirages,” but they won’t be as extreme as in 2020.

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How Trump Won, Again

He made gains in every corner of the country and with nearly every demographic group.

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Early Results Suggest the Polls Were Notably Accurate

Collectively they indicated that the presidential race would be close, and it appears they got it right without significantly underestimating Donald Trump’s support.

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On Midterms’ Hints, Down-Ballot Republicans and the Race for the House

What 2022 was telling us all along. And Trump has advantages that don’t seem transferable to his MAGA allies.

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